Part II: Diagnostic and Optimization of Analysis Error
نویسندگان
چکیده
We present a general theory of estimation of analysis error covariances based on 9 cross-validation as well as a geometric interpretation of the method. In particular we use the variance 10 of passive observation–minus-analysis residuals and show that the true analysis error variance can be 11 estimated, without relying on the optimality assumption. This approach is used to obtain near 12 optimal analyses that are then used to evaluate the air quality analysis error using several different 13 methods at active and passive observation sites. We compare the estimates according to the method 14 of Hollingsworth-Lönnberg, Desroziers et al., a new diagnostic we developed, and the perceived 15 analysis error computed from the analysis scheme, to conclude that, as long as the analysis is near 16 optimal, all estimates agree within a certain error margin. 17
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